Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

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AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-10-05T16:33:07Z
Fecha de publicación2020-01-01
ResumenWalker's Manihot,Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.M. walkeraepopulations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats forM. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change onM. walkerae'sgeographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution ofM. walkeraeand assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution forM. walkerae(years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences forM. walkeraeand ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution forM. walkeraeby the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9\% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14\% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution ofM. walkeraewas overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable forM. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist withinM. walkeraesuitable habitat.es_ES
Doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/f11060689es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/4944
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialMDPIes_ES
RelaciónForestses_ES
URL relacionadohttps://doi.org/10.3390/f11060689es_ES
DerechosAcceso abierto (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2es_ES
FuenteForests
Palabra claveendangeredes_ES
Palabra claveclimate changees_ES
Palabra clavespecies geographic distribution modelinges_ES
Palabra claveconservationes_ES
Palabra claveprotected areases_ES
TítuloPotential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkeraees_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorGarza, Gisel
AutorRivera, Armida
AutorVenegas Barrera, Crystian Sadiel
AutorGuadalupe Martinez-Avalos, Jose
AutorDale, Jon
AutorArroyo, Teresa Patricia Feria
AutorGarza, Giseles_ES
AutorRivera, Armidaes_ES
AutorVenegas Barrera, Crystian Sadieles_ES
AutorGuadalupe Martinez-Avalos, Josees_ES
AutorDale, Jones_ES
AutorArroyo, Teresa Patricia Feriaes_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Número6es_ES
URL relacionadahttps://doi.org/10.3390/f11060689
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen11es_ES

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