Contrasting Climatic and Land-Use Scenarios Reveal Divergent Futures for the Mexican Narrow-Mouthed Toad, Amphibia, Microhylidae Hypopachus variolosus (Cope, 1866)

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AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-10-05T16:32:54Z
Fecha de publicación2026-01-01
ResumenWe assessed the current and possible future predicted distributions of the Mexican narrow-mouthed toad, Amphibia, Microhylidae Hypopachus variolosus (Cope, 1866) across its range to evaluate vulnerability under global change. (2) Methods: We integrated 481 validated occurrence records across the species' distribution range, including 120 records from Mexico, with bioclimatic and land-cover predictors to build ensemble ecological niche models. We additionally incorporated human footprint metrics to evaluate anthropogenic pressure and projected future habitat suitability under climate and land-use change scenarios. (3) Results: Models showed high performance (TSS > 0.80; AUC > 0.90), identifying temperature and precipitation extremes as main drivers. Suitable habitats extended across both coasts and revealed novel areas in central Mexico. The most suitable habitat occurred under low human pressure, although localized impacts were detected. Deforestation in the Yucat \& aacute;n Peninsula reduced tree cover despite high climatic suitability. Future projections for 2050 under RCP 8.5 indicated marked reductions in modeled high-suitability areas, particularly in central Mexico. (4) Conclusions: These findings indicate high vulnerability to climate and land-use change and support updating distribution limits, incorporating new regions into conservation planning, and reassessing threat status to promote long-term persistence.es_ES
Doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/conservation6020073es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/4717
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialMDPIes_ES
RelaciónConservationes_ES
URL relacionadohttps://doi.org/10.3390/conservation6020073es_ES
DerechosAcceso abierto (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2es_ES
FuenteConservation
Palabra clavemicrohabitat plasticityes_ES
Palabra claveecological niche modelinges_ES
Palabra clavespecies distributiones_ES
Palabra claveclimate changees_ES
Palabra claveland-use changees_ES
Palabra claveanthropogenic environmentses_ES
Palabra claveamphibian conservationes_ES
TítuloContrasting Climatic and Land-Use Scenarios Reveal Divergent Futures for the Mexican Narrow-Mouthed Toad, Amphibia, Microhylidae Hypopachus variolosus (Cope, 1866)es_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorSunny, Armando
AutorGilchrist, Laura
AutorMartinez-Alva, German
AutorRojas-Velasco, Irving Yahan
AutorSanchez-Lara, Alexis Josue
AutorSolano-Gomez, Amanda
AutorGutierrez-Tovar, Liliana
AutorManjarrez, Javier
AutorZepeda-Gomez, Carmen
AutorGomez-Ortiz, Yuriana
AutorDominguez-Vega, Hublester
AutorSoria-Diaz, Leroy
AutorAstudillo-Sanchez, Claudia C.
AutorGopar-Merino, Luis Fernando
AutorBolom-Huet, Rene
AutorSunny, Armandoes_ES
AutorGilchrist, Lauraes_ES
AutorMartinez-Alva, Germanes_ES
AutorRojas-Velasco, Irving Yahanes_ES
AutorSanchez-Lara, Alexis Josuees_ES
AutorSolano-Gomez, Amandaes_ES
AutorGutierrez-Tovar, Lilianaes_ES
AutorManjarrez, Javieres_ES
AutorZepeda-Gomez, Carmenes_ES
AutorGomez-Ortiz, Yurianaes_ES
AutorDominguez-Vega, Hublesteres_ES
AutorSoria-Diaz, Leroyes_ES
AutorAstudillo-Sanchez, Claudia C.es_ES
AutorGopar-Merino, Luis Fernandoes_ES
AutorBolom-Huet, Renees_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Número2es_ES
URL relacionadahttps://doi.org/10.3390/conservation6020073
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen6es_ES

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