Generalized Pandemic Model with COVID-19 for Early-Stage Infection Forecasting
| Audiencia | Público en general | es_ES |
| Cobertura | México | es_ES |
| Fecha de ingreso | 2026-09-15T00:30:15Z | |
| Fecha de publicación | 2023-01-01 | |
| Resumen | In this paper, we tackle the problem of forecasting future pandemics by training models with a COVID-19 time series. We tested this approach by producing one model and using it to forecast a non-trained time series; however, we limited this paper to the eight states with the highest population density in Mexico. We propose a generalized pandemic forecasting framework that transforms the time series into a dataset via three different transformations using random forest and backward transformations. Additionally, we tested the impact of the horizon and dataset window sizes for the training phase. A Wilcoxon test showed that the best transformation technique statistically outperformed the other two transformations with 100% certainty. The best transformation included the accumulated efforts of the other two plus a normalization that helped rescale the non-trained time series, improving the sMAPE from the value of 25.48 attained for the second-best transformation to 13.53. The figures in the experimentation section show promising results regarding the possibility of forecasting the early stages of future pandemics with trained data from the COVID-19 time series. | es_ES |
| Doi | https://doi.org/10.3390/math11183924 | es_ES |
| URI | https://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/2215 | |
| Idioma | es | es_ES |
| Editorial | MDPI AG | es_ES |
| Relación | Mathematics | es_ES |
| URL relacionado | https://doi.org/10.3390/math11183924 | es_ES |
| Derechos | Acceso abierto (Metadatos de producción científica) | es_ES |
| Licencia | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | es_ES |
| Fuente | Mathematics | |
| Título | Generalized Pandemic Model with COVID-19 for Early-Stage Infection Forecasting | es_ES |
| Tipo | Artículo | es_ES |
| Arbitrado | Ha sido Arbitrado | es_ES |
| Autor | Ponce-Flores, Mirna Patricia | |
| Autor | Terán-Villanueva, Jesús David | |
| Autor | Ibarra-Martínez, Salvador | |
| Autor | Castán-Rocha, José Antonio | |
| Autor | Ponce-Flores, Mirna Patricia | es_ES |
| Autor | Terán-Villanueva, Jesús David | es_ES |
| Autor | Ibarra-Martínez, Salvador | es_ES |
| Autor | Castán-Rocha, José Antonio | es_ES |
| Institución | Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas | |
| Institución | Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas | es_ES |
| Número | 18 | es_ES |
| Rango de páginas | 3924 | es_ES |
| URL relacionada | https://doi.org/10.3390/math11183924 | |
| Tipo de artículo | Indexado | |
| Tipo de artículo | Indexado | es_ES |
| Volumen | 11 | es_ES |