A Methodological Approach for Risk Assessment of Municipal Water Supply Projects

Abstract

Critical infrastructure projects are essential for societal well-being and economic prosperity. These projects are characterized by significant complexities and uncertainties, including weather conditions, design challenges, and regulatory constraints, which can hinder their ability to meet time, cost, and quality goals. To address the risks that can disrupt such projects, comprehensive risk assessment frameworks are necessary to support decision-makers in managing them. This paper introduces a novel methodological framework for risk assessment in municipal water supply projects. The framework decomposes overall project risk into specific risk criteria to evaluate the impact of each activity on the project’s global risk. It integrates the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with a fuzzy multi-objective resource-constrained scheduling problem to enhance risk assessment. The practical applicability of the framework is demonstrated through a case study conducted with the Municipal Department of Water Systems in a metropolitan area in southern Tamaulipas, Mexico. The results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed methodology as a robust tool for assessing risks in municipal water supply projects.