Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150

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AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-10-05T16:32:44Z
Fecha de publicación2026-01-01
ResumenMetro Manila, one of the world's most densely populated megacities, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise because of its low-lying deltaic location, frequent tropical cyclones, and rapid anthropogenic subsidence caused mainly by groundwater extraction. This study brings together historical tide-gauge records from the Port of Manila (PSMSL) with the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, adding in vertical land motion (VLM) and sea-level fingerprints to work out local relative sea-level (RSL) changes. Assuming a constant subsidence rate, cumulative VLM reaches similar to 0.785 m by 2100 and similar to 1.289 m by 2150. When you factor in climatic contributions (amplified 10-20\% by fingerprints, especially under high-emission scenarios thanks to far-field Antarctic ice-loss effects in the western Pacific), projected RSL ranges from 1.09-1.42 m (SSP1-2.6) to 1.51-2.00 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, and from 1.70-2.28 m to 2.41-3.54 m by 2150. Results show that 7.95-11.15 km(2) (1.2-1.8\% of land area under SSP5-8.5) could face permanent inundation, mostly in Malabon (similar to 18\%), Navotas (similar to 20\%), and Manila (similar to 7\%). Our conservative estimates (permanent ocean-connected flooding, excluding existing aquaculture areas) come in much lower than earlier mid-century projections of up to a 30\% area affected. All this will worsen chronic tidal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and risks to millions in low-lying districts. We urgently need integrated adaptation, better groundwater regulation, and a mix of nature-based and engineered solutions.es_ES
Doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6020041es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/4569
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialMDPIes_ES
RelaciónGeographieses_ES
URL relacionadohttps://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6020041es_ES
DerechosAcceso abierto (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2es_ES
FuenteGeographies
Palabra clavesea-level risees_ES
Palabra clavesubsidencees_ES
Palabra claveMetro Manilaes_ES
Palabra claveIPCC projectionses_ES
Palabra clavecoastal floodinges_ES
TítuloClimate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150es_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorIbarra-Marinas, Daniel
AutorSilva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela
AutorMata-Chacon, Dulce
AutorBelmonte-Serrato, Francisco
AutorIbarra-Marinas, Danieles_ES
AutorSilva-Mendoza, Laura Marcelaes_ES
AutorMata-Chacon, Dulcees_ES
AutorBelmonte-Serrato, Franciscoes_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Número2es_ES
URL relacionadahttps://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6020041
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen6es_ES

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