A proposal for a vulnerability index for hydroelectricity generation in the face of potential climate change in Colombia

Simple item page
AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-10-05T16:32:43Z
Fecha de publicación2011-01-01
ResumenThe effect of potential climate change on the relationship water resources/hydropower generation in the Sinu-Caribbean Basin, Colombia, was analyzed. Climatic-hydrological variables that best express the vulnerability (positive or negative changes on water resources and related systems, and not precisely the definition of vulnerability given by the IPCC) of water resources in the region were identified, taking into account the current and projected values for the period of analysis 2010 to 2039. These variables were estimated based on the application of several general circulation models under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios A2. These scenarios were chosen considering that its outputs could provide a better basis to prevent adverse effects. The use of a weighted average scenario was proposed, and a vulnerability index for hydroelectric energy generation was established. In using the weighted average scenario was possible to determine the reduction of 13.3\% in water storage volume in the reservoir with respect to the current scenario (year 2005 historic average), and the reduction of 22.8\% in water storage volume with respect to the top of conservation storage capacity, and also, the reduction of 16.2\% in energy generation with respect to current generation, and the reduction of 29.5\% in energy generation with respect to the maximum hydropower generation capacity. The vulnerability index made it possible to determine (according to the models applied) that the hydropower generation system has a 44.4\% low degree of vulnerability, a 22.2\% medium degree of vulnerability, and a 33.3\% high degree of vulnerability. In other words of nine analyzed models, four project a low degree of vulnerability, two medium degree and three a high degree of vulnerability.es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/4543
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialCENTRO CIENCIAS ATMOSFERA UNAMes_ES
RelaciónAtmosferaes_ES
DerechosAcceso restringido / Suscripción (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16eces_ES
FuenteAtmosfera
Palabra claveWater resourceses_ES
Palabra claveclimate changees_ES
Palabra clavegeneral circulation modelses_ES
Palabra clavevulnerability indexes_ES
Palabra clavehydropower sectores_ES
TítuloA proposal for a vulnerability index for hydroelectricity generation in the face of potential climate change in Colombiaes_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorOspina Norena, J. E.
AutorGarcia, C. Gay
AutorConde, A. C.
AutorTorres Esqueda, G. Sanchez
AutorOspina Norena, J. E.es_ES
AutorGarcia, C. Gayes_ES
AutorConde, A. C.es_ES
AutorTorres Esqueda, G. Sanchezes_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Número3es_ES
Rango de páginas329-346es_ES
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen24es_ES

Files

Collections

Documentación Cientifica