Forecasting national port cargo throughput movement using autoregressive models

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AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-09-15T00:30:57Z
Fecha de publicación2025-01-01
ResumenPort services demand planning plays an important role in port capacity planning and management. It enables ports to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to changes in demand, fostering operational excellence and customer satisfaction in the port and maritime industry. This article explores the use of a multivariate forecasting model to predict port cargo throughput movement at a national level considering macroeconomic indicators. The statistical model is used to analyze how the port cargo throughput movement in Mexico is affected by changes in the level of industrial activities in both Mexico and the United States, and to generate a projection of the national port cargo throughput movement for the upcoming years. To achieve this, a multivariate time series analysis with vector autoregressive models was constructed using monthly frequency data from 2010 to 2022. The results of the autoregressive model indicate that the proposed macroeconomic variables have a Granger-causal effect on port cargo throughput movement. It was also found that an incremental shock from the U.S. economy has a positive effect that is transmitted temporarily during the first six immediate months, while changes in the national economic activity also have a temporary positive effect, but only during the first immediate period. Traditional forecasting performance metrics are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model.es_ES
Doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101322es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/2670
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialElsevier BVes_ES
RelaciónCase Studies on Transport Policyes_ES
URL relacionadohttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101322es_ES
DerechosAcceso restringido / Suscripción (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16eces_ES
FuenteCase Studies on Transport Policy
Palabra claveAutoregressive modeles_ES
Palabra clavePort (circuit theory)es_ES
Palabra claveThroughputes_ES
Palabra claveComputer sciencees_ES
Palabra claveMovement (music)es_ES
Palabra claveEconometricses_ES
Palabra claveTelecommunicationses_ES
Palabra claveEngineeringes_ES
Palabra claveEconomicses_ES
Palabra claveWirelesses_ES
ClasificaciónMaritime Ports and Logisticses_ES
TítuloForecasting national port cargo throughput movement using autoregressive modelses_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorRamírez, Dionicio Morales
AutorGracia, María D.
AutorRamírez, Dionicio Moraleses_ES
AutorGracia, María D.es_ES
AutorMar-Ortiz, Julio
AutorMar-Ortiz, Julioes_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Rango de páginas101322-101322es_ES
URL relacionadahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101322
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen19es_ES

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