Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

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AudienciaPúblico en generales_ES
CoberturaMéxicoes_ES
Fecha de ingreso2026-09-15T00:30:36Z
Fecha de publicación2018-04-06
ResumenAbstract Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision‐making and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on sugarcane grown under dryland conditions in Mexico and identified key climate factors influencing yield. The Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model was used to simulate sugarcane growth and yield under current and future climate conditions. Management, soil and climate data from farm sites in Jalisco (Pacific Mexico) and San Luis Potosi (Northeastern Mexico) were used to simulate baseline yields. Baseline climate was developed with 30‐year historical data from weather stations close to the sites. Future climate for three decadal periods (2021–2050) was constructed by adding forecasted climate values from downscaled outputs of global circulation models to baseline values. Climate change impacts were assessed by comparing baseline yields with those in future decades under the A2 scenario. Results indicate positive impacts of future climate change on sugarcane yields in the two regions, with increases of 1%–13% (0.6–8.0 Mg/ha). As seen in the multiple correlation analysis, evapotranspiration explains 77% of the future sugarcane yield in the Pacific Region, while evapotranspiration and number of water and temperature stress days account for 97% of the future yield in the Northeastern Region. The midsummer drought (canicula) in the Pacific Region is expected to be more intense and will reduce above‐ground biomass by 5%–13% (0.5–1.7 Mg/ha) in July–August. Harvest may be advanced by 1–2 months in the two regions to achieve increases in yield and avoid early flowering that could cause sucrose loss of 0.49 Mg ha−1 month−1. Integrating the simulation of pest and diseases under climate change in crop modelling may help fine‐tune yield forecasting.es_ES
Doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12278es_ES
URIhttps://riuat.uat.edu.mx/handle/123456789/2563
Idiomaenes_ES
EditorialWileyes_ES
RelaciónJournal of Agronomy and Crop Sciencees_ES
URL relacionadohttps://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12278es_ES
DerechosAcceso restringido / Suscripción (Metadatos de producción científica)es_ES
Licenciahttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16eces_ES
FuenteJournal of Agronomy and Crop Science
Palabra claveBaseline (sea)es_ES
Palabra claveClimate changees_ES
Palabra claveEvapotranspirationes_ES
Palabra claveEnvironmental sciencees_ES
Palabra claveRepresentative Concentration Pathwayses_ES
Palabra claveClimate change scenarioes_ES
Palabra claveYield (engineering)es_ES
Palabra claveClimatologyes_ES
Palabra claveAgriculturees_ES
Palabra claveBiomass (ecology)es_ES
Palabra claveClimate modeles_ES
Palabra claveGeographyes_ES
ClasificaciónSugarcane Cultivation and Processinges_ES
TítuloPotential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexicoes_ES
TipoArtículoes_ES
ArbitradoHa sido Arbitradoes_ES
AutorBáez‐González, Alma Delia
AutorKiniry, James R.
AutorMeki, Manyowa N.
AutorWilliams, J. R.
AutorCilva, M Alvarez
AutorGonzález, José Luis Ramos
AutorEstala, Agustín Magallanes
AutorBáez‐González, Alma Deliaes_ES
AutorKiniry, James R.es_ES
AutorMeki, Manyowa N.es_ES
AutorWilliams, J. R.es_ES
AutorCilva, M Alvarezes_ES
AutorGonzález, José Luis Ramoses_ES
AutorEstala, Agustín Magallaneses_ES
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas
InstituciónUniversidad Autónoma de Tamaulipases_ES
Número5es_ES
Rango de páginas515-528es_ES
URL relacionadahttps://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12278
Tipo de artículoIndexado
Tipo de artículoIndexadoes_ES
Volumen204es_ES

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