Efectos esperados de la extracción de gas shale en el noreste de México: un enfoque cualitativo

Abstract

This article identifies and assesses the expected effects of shale gas extraction in Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon and Coa­huila in the face of the imminent arrival of new companies to Burgos Basin in northeastern Mexico. Using the inte­grated relevant criteria methodology, data of key informants from the academic, governmental and business sectors in the three states were collected. According to the results, 65 percent of the variables used for assessing these effects, as a consequence of the development of industry in the region, are associated with positive changes, 15 percent with nega­tive changes and 20 percent remain unchanged. Expected benefits from shale gas/oil exploitation were overestimated; moreover, there is concern about the availability of water, given the geographical and climatological conditions of the region. Although the methodology used does not specify it must be applied to an optimal number of actors, it is to be admitted that the analysis could be significantly improved the greater the number of participants is. The main con­tribution to the field of assessment of social repercussions is that of having adapted this methodology because of the existing scarce literature on the subject.